There are many factors participating to
the resistance against democratization of the MENA region. To explain the
Middle East exceptionalism, one has to analyze each country from a historical,
economic and political context in order to provide a holistic understanding of
this exception.
The Case of
Algeria:
Although Algeria shares many
of the factors that led Arab countries to revolt such as, authoritative regimes
and unemployment, Algerians tend to be resistant to democratic reforms. To
understand the reasons behind the lack of enthusiasm towards major democratic
reforms, one has to understand the complex history of this country. From a
historical context, Algeria experienced various sorts of revolutions ranging
from the colonial revolution, Berber revolution and 1988 revolution. In the 1988, Algeria was under the rule of the
National Liberation Front (FLN), who prohibited freedom of press and the
existence of multi-party system. Additionally, at this time, opposition groups were watched very closely by the secret services known as DGSN.
However, after the oil shock, the living conditions in
Algeria became unbearable. Algerian youth finally went out and started a
revolution. This has led to some democratic reforms and the fall of
single-party system. However, Things took an unexpected turn and Algeria
plunged into political instability. Although, the 1988 revolution resulted in
some positive changes such as the introduction of multipartism and democratic
reforms, the revolution eventually led to terrifying Algerian Civil War.
This early revolution helps
explain why Algerians are resistant to democratic change. They had an early
Arab Spring that caused more than 100,000 deaths (no clear statistics),
followed by year of political and economic instability, and years of terrorism.
It is not until the last past decade that Algeria managed to restore stability
within the country. To finally answer the question, Algeria is resistant to the
change because of:
(1)
Its
experience with revolution and democratic reforms. The 1988 revolution
introduced minor positive changes in comparison to negative consequences it had
on Algeria’s economy, politics and security.
(2)
Fear and fatigue, Algerians fear the
return of the early 1990’s experience, where it was extremely unsafe to travel
within Algeria, where Islamist almost took over. Therefore, they would rather
keep the imperfect status quo.
(3)
Oil,
oil, oil, as long as the government is able to buy its citizens and provide
minimum acceptable living conditions, as long as oil revenue keep flowing from
government to citizens, people won’t revolt.
Each country has its own history and
understanding why each country is resistant to democratic change, necessitates
a thorough examination of their politico-economic history!
The point you raise about fatigue is quite interesting. I think arguments can be made that Egypt has experienced something similar since the 2011 revolts. The consequences of the revolution were high, in terms of economics and lives lost. When Mursi was ousted and ElSisi stepped in, even though this contradicted the revolution's calls for democracy, the Egyptian public largely seemed to tolerate the new order. Egypt's youth, for the moment, apparently value the stability of ElSisi's rule more than the idealism of democracy.
ReplyDeleteThe idea that the "imperfect status quo" is better than the unknown that might come after the revolution, might dissuade the recent crop of protestors from attempting such radical reform for some time; but if the next generation hasn't experienced this same fear, they might be more likely to lead the next revolution, especially if the 2011 revolts are glorified or portrayed as incomplete.
I absolutely agree with your second point. For Algeria, I am third generation, although I did not experience the Algerian War, my grand parents fought for the independence of the country and they still hear about it until today. As for terrorism and Civil War, I assisted part of it so I am fully aware of the positive/negative consequences a revolution can cause (whether I experienced it first hand or heard from my parents and grandparents). But maybe the next generations would be more willing to take that risk!
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ReplyDeleteI have tow comments. The first when you said that Algeria had an early version of the Arab Spring, by which you mean the elections of 1990/1 . I found the analogy here very interesting as far as democratic transformation is concerned. For me I think the elections in Algeria which resulted in a victory of the Islamists was in different context than what happened in Egypt and Tunisia twenty years later. However the link between the psychological impact of the "Black Decade" to the nowadays event in the other Arab Countries is a strong one. Secondly, for the Oil part. Algeria still represents a special case in the Arab World, where it is the only populous country that Oil/ rich yet has not been able to raise the living standards to its young population to decent levels. Therefore, I might be not mistaken if I assume that the "Arab Spring" in Algeria is only delayed and not ruled out altogether.
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