Egypt's Future

What is happening in Egypt is one of the saddest things as hopes for change did not move the country forward. The revolution was well deserved, yet the results of it were not expected to turn this way. However, we need to remind ourselves that it takes years to shift a country towards a democracy from autocratic rule. After reading the Brookings article last night, I talked to an older Egyptian Man that works close to where I live. Mahmoud, who lived through AbdelNasser's Egypt has a different view than what most of us would think. We started chatting about the weather, and some thing led to another until we ended up talking about the politics of the current regime. Mahmoud, believes that the only way Egypt can survive is through military rule, and according to him, Egyptians will always end up fighting amongst each other. Mahmoud has no hope for his home country's future. 

Is that what AlSisi would like Egyptians to think? There is no hope for democracy in the country until "20-25 years", and even when we reach that time, there will be other excuses on why the country shouldn't shift towards a democracy. I am a strong believer of a democratic regime, yet, AlSisi seems to convince many Egyptians that he is better than whatever would come from a democracy. I could probably make a similar statement about Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore or Mohammad Bin Rashid of Dubai, saying that no democratic form of government especially with (at the time of their rise) a weakly educated population, would bring such a leader into power. Yes, they are not "perfect" leaders, but by looking at the state of their economies, they are close to that. 

AlSisi is not that type of leader. I can see a situation in the future where the UAE would shift towards a democracy, as an educated population is more likely to pressure for representation. However, AlSisi seems to be pre-occupied by crushing dissent over anything else. Paranoid regimes that follow such strategies waste all of its effort into that rather than improving governance in a way that pushes for economic prosperity. Although, many Egyptians might have positive views of AlSisi, it will be much easier to bring him down than bringing down Mubarak as the population is going back to square one. It looks very much like going from the 1^st republic to the 1^st Empire under Napoleon in France. France went along to have 5 more core regime shifts before arriving to its current state. It was the French revolutions that pressured Europe into democratic development. It will be the Egyptians that will bring the same to MENA, and I believe the changes in Egypt will be much more rapid that what the French experienced because of the technological age. It was already clear that the revolutionaries were impatient with the brotherhood, the same will likely happen with the military, especially if things like Regeni continue to happen. AlSisi will loose his grip on legitimacy if western powers denounce him,especially as torture forensics evidence start surfacing. 

As to the 20-25 years, Indonesia still suffers from strong military presence in politics since 1945. However, back in 2014 Joko Widodo broke that tradition, and today it is fair to say that Indonesia is on the road to a real, full, and legitimate democracy. I can only see two situations arising, either a democratic transition would happen in the very short run (by a 3rd revolutionary wave of course, afterall "absolute power corrupts absolutely") or the second scenario is military rule will continue well beyond the 20-25 mark AlSisi suggested. 

It is true that a democracy would have not brought Lee Kuan Yew into power, but a democracy will prevent another Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein or Bashar AlAssad from coming to power. Trusting the "good will" of your autocratic leader or monarch is not the best form of governance, especially if there is no risk of them loosing their power if they fail to govern inefficiently. The only hope of a brighter democracy in the region is more grassroots political participation.