The Zaballeen have a new mural...

In the New York Times today, there was an article about a mural painted in the Manshiyat Naser district of Cairo. It did not mention the people by name, the Zabballeen, but did refer to them as the trash collecting mainly Coptic community.

The quote is from a third century bishop that says, "If one wants to see the light of the sun, he must wipe his eyes."

The article also says that this area was chosen for its distance from the bureaucratic center of the city. Beyond the article's "Aw, isn't that nice?" factor, I thought it was important to point out this as a current example of the Egyptian state still unable to penetrate all layers of the Egyptian society.

With help of the local neighborhood residents the artist, eL Seed, was able to circumvent any apparatchiks that would have stood in his way should he had chosen a more centrally located/richer area. 

Is ISIS really losing ground?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/28/politics/isis-losses-iraq-syria-brussels/

I'm taking a page from Ahmed's book and playing fast and loose with the blog because I believe this is an interesting development in the Middle East given last week's discussion on social movement theory. During our class I remarked to Julio the similarities between the components of effective social mobilization and the components of an effective insurgency. I'll go over the points shortly, but I believe they're important to consider given the recent press surrounding ISIS. Over the last two weeks in the wake of the Brussels attacks and increased activity by ISIS affiliates in Africa, the western media has focused on the destruction of ISIS territory as if it is a measurable metric to their defeat. In the above article U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is cited as saying, "We are systematically eliminating ISIL's cabinet", referring to the killing of key leaders as a measurable success in the fight against terrorism. For starters, yes ISIS is a terrorist organization, but looking at it only in that light fails to recognize how its moment and personnel actually operate at an organizational level.

8 elements of a successful insurgency

·      Critical Mass

·      A better idea

·      Strong, charismatic leader

·      Resources

·      External Support

·      Communications

·      Safe Havens

·      Intelligence

The above list will never be exhaustive, but it does provide a solid framework for the elements necessary for an insurgent movement to start, sustain and succeed. Certain components are not always necessary and many times an insurgent movement can succeed absent some of these elements depending on the type of movement and the structure of the the institutional power being combatted. The most interesting aspect of what makes most insurgent movements successful over the last 60 or so years has been the rise of public opinion. As we spoke about with social movements, the role of public opinion has been a critical factor for mobilization of personnel and the ideological battle against a national power. Many of the Arab Spring uprisings were able to gain additional traction when the governments being protested against forcefully tried to quash the movement, ultimately galvanizing the movement in the eyes of the populace. 

Social Movement Theory levels of analysis

§  Political opportunities and constraints

§  Resource mobilization

§  Discursive opportunities and constraints

The list above about Social Movement Theory and some of the other factors we discussed in class illustrate parallels between these types of uprisings. 

If you read the CNN article completely you will see there is mention that the percentage of lost territory is not a perfect metric for determining the degradation of ISIS. Again, this will be apparent as it is commonly known that ISIS will likely attempt more attacks outside of Syria and Iraq. Just as social movements against a legitimate political actor can have fluctuating tempos and wins/losses over a period of time (we see the ups and downs of political reformation following Egypt's popular movement), it is important to look at ISIS not as a static actor set only on establishing a Caliphate that is territory based. Terrorists, Islamists or political dissidents all have a goal aimed at some ideological turnaround of their current situation and it often includes utilizing the eight elements of an insurgency. Just as we look at the entire spectrum of political, economic and social factors that contribute to the states in the MENA region, it is important to consider that even non-state actors have varying success with these same factors when mobilizing personnel, resources and gaining external recognition in advancing their ideological cause. 

Egypt's Future

What is happening in Egypt is one of the saddest things as hopes for change did not move the country forward. The revolution was well deserved, yet the results of it were not expected to turn this way. However, we need to remind ourselves that it takes years to shift a country towards a democracy from autocratic rule. After reading the Brookings article last night, I talked to an older Egyptian Man that works close to where I live. Mahmoud, who lived through AbdelNasser's Egypt has a different view than what most of us would think. We started chatting about the weather, and some thing led to another until we ended up talking about the politics of the current regime. Mahmoud, believes that the only way Egypt can survive is through military rule, and according to him, Egyptians will always end up fighting amongst each other. Mahmoud has no hope for his home country's future. 

Is that what AlSisi would like Egyptians to think? There is no hope for democracy in the country until "20-25 years", and even when we reach that time, there will be other excuses on why the country shouldn't shift towards a democracy. I am a strong believer of a democratic regime, yet, AlSisi seems to convince many Egyptians that he is better than whatever would come from a democracy. I could probably make a similar statement about Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore or Mohammad Bin Rashid of Dubai, saying that no democratic form of government especially with (at the time of their rise) a weakly educated population, would bring such a leader into power. Yes, they are not "perfect" leaders, but by looking at the state of their economies, they are close to that. 

AlSisi is not that type of leader. I can see a situation in the future where the UAE would shift towards a democracy, as an educated population is more likely to pressure for representation. However, AlSisi seems to be pre-occupied by crushing dissent over anything else. Paranoid regimes that follow such strategies waste all of its effort into that rather than improving governance in a way that pushes for economic prosperity. Although, many Egyptians might have positive views of AlSisi, it will be much easier to bring him down than bringing down Mubarak as the population is going back to square one. It looks very much like going from the 1^st republic to the 1^st Empire under Napoleon in France. France went along to have 5 more core regime shifts before arriving to its current state. It was the French revolutions that pressured Europe into democratic development. It will be the Egyptians that will bring the same to MENA, and I believe the changes in Egypt will be much more rapid that what the French experienced because of the technological age. It was already clear that the revolutionaries were impatient with the brotherhood, the same will likely happen with the military, especially if things like Regeni continue to happen. AlSisi will loose his grip on legitimacy if western powers denounce him,especially as torture forensics evidence start surfacing. 

As to the 20-25 years, Indonesia still suffers from strong military presence in politics since 1945. However, back in 2014 Joko Widodo broke that tradition, and today it is fair to say that Indonesia is on the road to a real, full, and legitimate democracy. I can only see two situations arising, either a democratic transition would happen in the very short run (by a 3rd revolutionary wave of course, afterall "absolute power corrupts absolutely") or the second scenario is military rule will continue well beyond the 20-25 mark AlSisi suggested. 

It is true that a democracy would have not brought Lee Kuan Yew into power, but a democracy will prevent another Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein or Bashar AlAssad from coming to power. Trusting the "good will" of your autocratic leader or monarch is not the best form of governance, especially if there is no risk of them loosing their power if they fail to govern inefficiently. The only hope of a brighter democracy in the region is more grassroots political participation.